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Corvalis Metropolitan Planning Area Scenario Viewer


Corvalis Scenario Viewer

This is a good example of:

online tools that allow users to adjust policies and view cost and transportation outcomes

Summary:

The Corvallis Metropolitan Planning Area (CAMPO) strategic assessment modeled policy combinations and context factors to find out how different choices (policy factors like community design) and different external influences (context factors such as fuel prices) could affect future vehicle miles traveled, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, travel costs, and other outcomes in the region.

Narrative:

In 2007,  State of Oregon adopted laws to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a level that is at least 75% lower than the 1990 level by 2050 (two years later, the legislation added transportation targets).  In 2010, SB 1059 directed the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) to:

  • Establish guidelines for evaluating land use and transportation scenarios that would lead to the reduction of GHS emissions;
  • Develop a toolkit for local governments to reduce GHG emissions
  • Educate the public on the need for reducing GHG emissions

In 2014, CAMPO published its “Strategic Assessment of Transportation and Land Use Plans” (62 pages and PowerPoint) to outline various policy bundles needed to achieve desired reductions. The Assessment identified five bundles of four state and local action levers: Community Design, Incentives & Marketing, Pricing, & Vehicles and Fuels.

Categories

Many factors such as land use and fuel price affect light duty vehicle travel. Because the number of factors considered is large, they were grouped into 6 categories as follows:

Policy Factors: These categories represent factors within local and state control.

  • Community Design Policies that seek to enable shorter trips and alternate modes such as promotion of mixed use land use, transit service, bicycling, and parking management.
  • Marketing & Incentives Policies that improve driving efficiency such as ecodriving,and Intelligent Transportation System efforts, as well as programs that reduce auto demand such as carsharing, and transportation demand management.
  • Pricing Policies that move towards true cost pricing such as road user fees to pay for the cost of operating, maintaining and improving roads, pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) insurance, and environmental impact fees such as a carbon tax.
  • Vehicles & Fuels Factors representing the anticipated changes to future vehicles and fuels due federal and state policies and to market changes such as the shift to electric vehicles or more fuel efficient vehicles, reduced carbon intensity of fuels, pace of vehicle turnover, and the light truck share of vehicles.

Context Factors: These categories represent factors outside our control, but help evaluate the robustness of policies in the face of uncertain future conditions.

  • Fuel Price The assumed market price of gasoline and other fuels (exclusive of fuel taxes).
  • Income Growth The assumed growth of average per capita income, representing the growth of the economy.

Levels

Several levels were defined for each of the categories. These levels are numbered to indicate the amount of change from a reference case which represents the continuation of adopted local plans, policies and trends.

  • Level 1: Corresponds to the reference case.
  • Level 0: Represents a retreat from current plans (such as lower parking fees or less bicycling than anticipated), or lower context forecasts (lower fuel price or lower income).
  • Levels 2-3: Representing more ambitious policies or higher context forecasts (higher fuel price or higher income).

The levels are displayed in pie charts, one for each category, as shown in the following illustration. The pie charts for the policy-related categories are highlighted with a light gray background. The pie charts for the context factors are highlighted with a darker gray background.

Each pie chart has a legend showing the color associated with each level. The sizes of the pie slices show the proportions of the selected scenarios in each each level. The number of selected scenarios in each level is shown in the corresponding pie slices. You can select (or deselect) the scenarios in a level by either clicking on the pie slice or the corresponding legend entry. The picture shows what it will look like when level 1 is selected for both fuel price and income. The selected level is colored and the non-selected levels aregrayed-out. (This is the starting condition when you open this web page.) In this instance the numbers in the selected pie slices mean that there are 32 scenarios that have reference case values for fuel price and income.

Outcomes

Given the chosen category inputs, the web page also shows future year outcomes for the following performance measures:

  • GHG Target Reduction: 2005-2035 percentage reduction in light-duty vehicle GHG emissions (beyond vehiles and fuels) relative to target baseline.
  • DVMT Per Capita: daily vehicle miles of travel of residents divided by population.
  • Bike Miles Per Capita: annual miles of resident bike travel divided by population.
  • Walk Trips Per Capita: annual residents’ walk trips (not including recreation or walk to transit) divided by population.
  • Air Pollution Emissions: daily metric tons of pollutants emitted from all light-duty vehicle travel (including hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and particulates).
  • Annual Fuel Use: annual million gallons of gasoline and other fuels consumed by all light-duty vehicle travel.
  • Annual Household Vehicle Cost: average annual household cost (thousand dollars) for owning and operating light-duty vehicles (including gas, taxes, parking, registration, depreciation, maintenance, and financing).
  • Truck Delay: daily vehicle-hours of delay for heavy truck travel on area roads.

Each outcome is illustrated in a bar chart showing the range of outcome values for the selected scenarios. The bar height indicates the number of selected scenarios with that outcome value. The average value for all of the selected scenarios is shown above the bar chart. The following illustrations shows what the CO2e Target Reduction, DVMT Per Capita, Bike Travel per Capita, and Walk Travel Per Capita bar charts look like when all scenarios are selected.

The bar charts can also be used to make a selection of scenarios. This can be done by hovering the mouse cursor over the bar at one end of the desired selection range. When the cursor is in the shape of a crosshairs, click and drag the mouse cursor to the other end of the desired range. The bar chart will change to show the selected range. In addition, handles will appear at the ends of the selected range. You can click one these and drag it to alter the selection. You can also click on the middle of the selection (when the shape of the cursor is a crossed arrow) to drag the whole selection to a different location on the bar chart. As you make a selection in one bar chart, all the other bar charts will change to show just the selected scenarios. The pie charts will also change accordingly. The following illustration shows a selection made on the CO2eTargetReduction bar chart and the corresponding values for the other bar charts in the row. You can see in the picture the crossed-arrow cursor shape which means that the whole selection can be dragged to a new position.

Selections can be made simultaneously on multiple pie charts and bar charts. As more selections are made, all of the charts will be updated to show the selections that meet all of the selection conditions. To clear all of the selections and show all of the scenarios, just click on one of the Clear All Selections links on the web page.

URL link to Main Resource:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/Pages/scenarioviewer.html

Project Location :

Corvalis Oregon

Development Context:

Inner Ring Suburb

Stage:

Planned

Stage:

Oregon Department of Transportation, Corvallis Metropolitan Planning Area (CAMPO), Brian Gregor, Oregon Systems Analytics LLC (or-analytics.com)

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